Morgan Stanley estimates Apple shipped 51.1 million iphones in the September quarter
2022-10-21

October 20 - Ahead of Apple's fiscal 2022 Q4 earnings call on October 27, Morgan Stanley believes Apple's September quarter results will top Wall Street expectations, although the firm slightly lowered its price target on the stock.

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In a note to investors, Morgan Stanley analysts offered a cautious view of Apple's financial performance. However, they expect the company to report revenue growth.


ErikWoodring forecasts Apple's September quarter revenue at $90.1 billion. The estimate was 2 percent higher than Wall Street's forecast of $88.4 billion and, if accurate, would break a record for the quarter.


As the year draws to a close, Woodring predicts Apple's December quarter revenue will reach $133.7 billion. It also beat Wall Street expectations by an average of 4%.


The combination of iphones, ipads and Macs will likely be the main driver of Apple's growth. As of October 18, the iPhone14Pro and iPhone14ProMax had a delivery time of 26.5 days.


Morgan Stanley forecasts 51.1 million iphones shipped in the September quarter at an average selling price of $838, which could bring in $43 billion in iPhone revenue.


iPad revenue is expected to be flat from last year at $8.3 billion, with shipments of about 16 million units; Mac revenue is likely to come in at $1.04 billion, up 14% year over year. It expects to ship 8 million Macs in the September quarter.


Analysts forecast +7% quarter-on-quarter for wearables in the September quarter, but below the average seasonal revenue of +15% over the past five years. The new  Series8, Apple Watch Ultra, and AirPodsPro may not be enough to drive significant revenue growth.


In the end, Woodring estimates Apple's services revenue at $19.7 billion. It believes these factors, along with Apple's 14-week December quarter, will drive an acceleration in services revenue growth year over year.


Morgan Stanley has slightly cut its price target on Apple AAPL stock to $177 from $180 in July 2022.


Declining performance in wearables and services may have contributed to the lower target price. In addition, the note mentioned that AppStore revenue was down about 2% year over year, which Morgan Stanley attributed to a decline in gaming revenue.


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