In 2022, under the challenge of many factors such as the global economy, epidemic situation, supply and demand relationship, the new display industry experienced a profound industry "big test", and the enterprises related to the industrial chain suffered unprecedented operating pressure, but also showed strong development resilience. After the trough, 2023 will become a new starting point for the industry, with the key words of adjusting resource allocation, rational and orderly development, and innovative application scenarios. According to the research and judgment of industry experts, the new display industry will still operate at a low level in the first half of 2023, while it is expected to rise slowly in the second half of 2023 and achieve recovery.
Leaving the "trough", bright spots are expected to appear in the second half of the year
In 2022, the global display panel industry experienced a special "industry test": after the longest price rise cycle, the global display market entered a downward cycle again in 2022. According to the statistics of the LCD Branch of the China Optics and Optoelectronics Industry Association, in the global display market, it is estimated that the industry output value will be about US $1998 billion in 2022, down more than 20% year on year. Among them, the output value of display devices (panels) was about US $110 billion, down nearly 27% year on year; It shows that the output value of materials is about 76.6 billion US dollars, down nearly 13% year on year; It shows that the equipment output value is about 12 billion US dollars, down more than 9% year on year. It is worth mentioning that China's display industry has overcome many challenges and demonstrated strong resilience. The industry output value in 2022 will be close to 500 billion yuan, accounting for more than 38% of the global market. In terms of investment, the Chinese market continues to maintain vitality, and the investment structure has been significantly improved. The investment in materials is close to 75 billion yuan, surpassing that in devices for the first time. The investment direction is significantly shifted from LCD to OLED, Micro-LED and some upstream materials.
In 2022, for the first time, the display industry saw a double decline in panel shipments and area. The reason is that the liquid crystal branch of the China Optics and Optoelectronics Industry Association concluded at an event at the end of last year: first, the industry will consume ahead of schedule in 2021, resulting in a corresponding decline in demand in 2022; Second, the fluctuation of the global political and economic pattern in 2022, the global epidemic and other factors have affected the supply chain, market demand, logistics and other aspects. In the fourth quarter of 2022, enterprises simultaneously controlled production capacity by reducing crop growth rate and other ways, effectively curbing the continuous decline of panel prices and achieving results. However, the real reason for the temporary stability of the industry should be attributed to the self-discipline of the industry, not the fundamental relationship between supply and demand.
Looking forward to 2023, the semiconductor display industry will still operate at a low level, especially in the first and second quarters, the market demand is still limited. The slow rise in the second half of the year mainly depends on two factors: first, the improvement of supply and demand relations. If the political and economic situation improves in the first half of the year, the supply-demand relationship is expected to improve in the second half of the year; Second, industry self-discipline. The fundamental reason for the stability and slight increase of panel prices at this stage is not the driving force of the market supply and demand relationship. Therefore, enterprises should have a deep understanding of the industry supply and demand situation in 2023, start from the overall situation, maintain the industry self-discipline through market behavior, and maintain the stable and healthy development of the industry.
Dong Min, Deputy Secretary-General of China Electronics Video Industry Association, told China Electronics News that 2023 is a new stage of development for the display industry. Chinese panel manufacturers will further increase their market voice and more display technologies will be promoted to a higher level. Small size LTPO, curl screen, Fast LCD, silicon-based OLED, silicon-based LED, large size , printing display, 8K ultra-high definition, Micro-LED, panchromatic laser, electronic paper, as well as bare-eye 3D, optical field display, transparent display, and in-cell touch display in commercial scenes, will expand the effective capacity supply or achieve key links.
Looking ahead to 2023, although the challenges remain, many industry insiders interviewed by China Electronic News are optimistic about the overall trend of the global display industry.
"Driven by market demand and technological innovation, emerging display technologies will continue to evolve, and the trend of development will remain unchanged. Value promotion will become a key breakthrough in the development of the entire industry." Yang Shujuan, chief brand officer of Vicino, pointed out to reporters. There are opportunities and challenges in 2023. With the full withdrawal of South Korea from the LCD market, the competition pattern of emerging displays such as AMOLED will become more intense. In 2022, South Korea will include display technology in its national strategic technology. At the beginning of 2023, South Korea raised the national strategic industrial investment income tax exemption, which is very good for South Korea's display industry and is conducive to further improving its competitiveness, which also means that the competition in the display industry is more brutal. With the global economy still under pressure and demand recovering slowly, it is particularly critical to improve product competitiveness through technological innovation to gain more market share.
"We can call 2023 a year of 'startup'. The industry has ended the uncertain situation of the previous stage and continues to move forward towards the future." Liang Xinqing, executive vice president and secretary general of the LCD branch of the China Optical and Optoelectronic Industry Association, said in an interview with the reporter of China Electronics News, "2022 is a big test for China's display industry. Although it has experienced various superimposed factors and encountered great difficulties, the whole industry has finally come out of the trough through concerted efforts. In 2023, the display industry will be in a process of 'seeking progress while maintaining stability'. First of all, we need to calm down the previous impacts, and at the same time, we should gradually expand the accumulation and planning in technology, research and development, supply chain and other aspects in the past few years 。 From the second half of this year, we have the opportunity to see many bright spots in the display industry. "
BOE Vice President and Chief Brand Officer Sida shared his three judgments with reporters. First, industry uncertainty is accelerating. After the adjustment in 2022, as the inventory of terminal manufacturers returns to the normal level, the pace of industry shipment accelerates to return to the normal, and the stability of the industrial chain will be steadily improved. Second, development resilience and sustainability will be further enhanced. Facing the "big test" of the industry, it shows that the industry, as the representative of the real economy, shows strong resilience and flexibility. Third, the innovation-driven development model will become the main theme of the industry. After a year's precipitation in 2022, the display industry is accelerating from the original scale-oriented to the technology-oriented and value-oriented high-quality development path. High-end intelligent terminal products with high added value, such as ultra-high definition, ultra-high brush, flexible OLED, Mini/Micro-LED, will present more innovative breakthroughs, and the application markets such as car, folding screen, metauniverse, smart medical, and smart retail will usher in rapid development.
"Driven by market demand and technological innovation, emerging display technologies will continue to evolve, and the trend of development will remain unchanged. Value promotion will become a key breakthrough in the development of the entire industry." Yang Shujuan, chief brand officer of Vicino, pointed out to reporters. There are opportunities and challenges in 2023. With the full withdrawal of South Korea from the LCD market, the competition pattern of emerging displays such as AMOLED will become more intense. In 2022, South Korea will include display technology in its national strategic technology. At the beginning of 2023, South Korea raised the national strategic industrial investment income tax exemption, which is very good for South Korea's display industry and is conducive to further improving its competitiveness, which also means that the competition in the display industry is more brutal. With the global economy still under pressure and demand recovering slowly, it is particularly critical to improve product competitiveness through technological innovation to gain more market share.
"We can call 2023 a year of 'startup'. The industry has ended the uncertain situation of the previous stage and continues to move forward towards the future." Liang Xinqing, executive vice president and secretary general of the LCD branch of the China Optical and Optoelectronic Industry Association, said in an interview with the reporter of China Electronics News, "2022 is a big test for China's display industry. Although it has experienced various superimposed factors and encountered great difficulties, the whole industry has finally come out of the trough through concerted efforts. In 2023, the display industry will be in a process of 'seeking progress while maintaining stability'. First of all, we need to calm down the previous impacts, and at the same time, we should gradually expand the accumulation and planning in technology, research and development, supply chain and other aspects in the past few years 。 From the second half of this year, we have the opportunity to see many bright spots in the display industry. "
Application market differentiation, vehicle-mounted and folding screen become "dual engines"
In 2023, the global display application market will be differentiated and further diversified, but the demand for some traditional application fields will decline, and the industry is expected to show a slight growth trend.
Li Yaqin, general manager of Qunzi Consulting, previously told reporters that the rebalancing of the supply chain in 2023 means that the end brand will start to rationally examine its own requirements for the supply chain, and the level of safety stock will become rational, and the brand's own supply chain structure, supply quantity and supply chain partnership will put forward different requirements from the past two years. She pointed out that in the first quarter of 2023, the brand will continue to actively control inventory. If we continue to control the inventory in the first quarter of this year, it is predicted that the inventory of the main brands in the second quarter, except TV, including PC and mobile phones, will enter a relatively healthy level, and really return to the inventory balance level.
In the field of subdivided applications, vehicle-mounted display and folding screen mobile phones are the two most promising "potential stocks".
The on-board display will rise against the trend under the overall pressure of the industry, and will show a stable and clear growth trend in 2023. "The automobile cockpit is rapidly entering the era of intelligent interactive display from the traditional LCD display era, and the large screen and intelligent interior space has become an important trend in the field of on-board display," Sita told China Electronics News. In the field of vehicle/smart cockpit, flexible OLED, Mini LED, tactile feedback, bare-eye 3D and other innovative technologies are integrated, and the trend of large-screen and intelligent is emerging.
In recent years, under the positive influence of the continuous growth of new energy vehicles, the on-board display has ushered in a period of rapid development. The on-board display is developing vigorously towards multi-screen, large-scale, intelligent and diversified display technology. The analysis report of Qunzi Consulting pointed out that the vehicle-mounted display is a market worth looking forward to for a long time in the future, and will grow into the largest application of a single category in the medium and large size market in 2026. DSCC research and consultation show that the automobile panel will continue to grow in 2023, and the total shipment volume (LCD+OLED) is expected to exceed 200 million panels.
At present, LGD, BOE, TCL Huaxing, Vicino, Shenzhen Tianma and other world-renowned panel manufacturers have all laid out the field of vehicle display and have been increasing their size. From a technical point of view, the future car display technology will still be dominated by traditional LCD display technology. As the upgrade of the next generation of a-Si LCD car display products, the LTPS LCD car display panel has a very clear development trend. For high-end display products such as AMOLED, Mini LED, Micro-LED, etc., major panel manufacturers are also accelerating the development progress and gradually starting mass production and application, which will become the development direction of high-end car display in the future.
Industry experts pointed out that the automotive display industry is showing a steady and rising trend of development. With the promotion of automotive intelligence, the application of new technologies for automotive display will flourish in the next 5-10 years.
In addition to on-board display, folding screen is also one of the growth points in 2023. Yang Shujuan stressed to the reporter of China Electronic News that folding mobile phones have become the main driving force of the current market demand for machine replacement, and mainstream brand manufacturers have laid out in the field of folding. Group intelligence consulting analysis shows that the opportunity point in the smart phone panel comes from the folding screen mobile phone. The global shipments of folding screen mobile phones will be about 14 million in 2022 and will increase to 23 million in 2023. According to the data of CINNO Research, the sales of folding screen mobile phones in the Chinese market reached 2.83 million in 2022, with a year-on-year growth of 144.4%. According to the quarterly data, the domestic sales of folding screen mobile phones have been increasing year on year for 9 consecutive quarters.
Industry competition intensifies, and VR shows up as a "technical training ground"
In 2023, multiple display technologies will continue to develop in parallel and will be upgraded to a higher level; At the same time, the competition between different technological routes will also intensify. VR display has become a "technical training ground" for the display industry due to the gathering of new display technologies with advantages such as Fast-LCD, silicon-based OLED (Micro-OLED), AMOLED, Micro-LED, etc., and relevant enterprises have competed for layout.
The era of "display everywhere" has come, and the vision of the spatial interconnection of everything in the metauniverse has given display technology unlimited imagination and development space. In this context, VR/AR, as the entrance to the Meta Universe, shows that its prospects are long-term optimistic by the industry. Omdia, a research institute, predicts that in 2023, the shipment of generalized extended reality (XR) equipment, including AR, VR and MR, will reach 24 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 67%. According to the prediction of Strategy Analytics, the market stock of VR/AR hardware equipment will double from the current 50 million to 100 million by 2024. The positive attitude of the world's famous consumer electronics terminal manufacturers also provides support for the industry to give optimistic predictions: In 2023, Sony PSVR 2, Apple's key products such as Hybrid Reality (MR) headdisplay and MetaQuest 3, as well as HTC's expected new products will boost the growth of a new round of VR/AR display.
It is worth noting that while the industry is developing rapidly, China has formed a rare large-scale domestic demand market around the new display in the world. In terms of policy, in November last year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other five national departments issued the Action Plan for the Integration and Development of Virtual Reality and Industrial Applications (2022-2026), which proposed the specific goal of "more than 25 million virtual reality terminals will be sold by 2026", and near-eye display technology as a key technology integration and innovation project, focusing on promoting the upgrading of micro-display technologies such as Fast-LCD, silicon-based OLED and Micro-LED. At the same time, it is required to improve the supply capacity of the whole industrial chain and promote the mass production scale of new display devices above 4K. With the introduction of the policy, the demand for VR products will continue to release, driving the rapid development of the relevant industrial chain, and the micro-display products as the core components of VR products will also usher in rapid growth.
Looking forward to the display industry in 2023, Zhao Jun, CEO of TCL Huaxing, specifically mentioned the trend of metauniverse in an interview with the reporter of China Electronics News. "Some people say that the next generation of Internet must be in the form of 3D. People no longer work and socialize across the computer screen, but immerse themselves in the 3D world to gain unprecedented virtual reality experience and stimulate unprecedented creativity." Zhao Jun believes that if the universe is compared to a virtual digital world, the core hardware is the VR display, which is the core productivity tool to embrace the virtual world. TCL Huaxing's positioning for itself is to focus on doing a good job of this productivity tool.
"In 2023, with the gradual recovery of the global market and demand, the display industry will release a new round of explosive force. The Mini/Micro-LED technology changes and develops, the metauniverse and virtual reality industry is the trend of the times, and the new application scenarios are constantly excavated, which shows the broad prospects of the industry." Li Jun, chairman of the Liyad Group, told China Electronics News. Since 2017, Liad has started to layout the virtual reality industry. Through the acquisition of American NP Company and with the world's leading optical motion capture technology, Lyad quickly completed the strategic layout of VR business.
Looking forward to 2023, the entire new display industry will undoubtedly face many challenges, and after clearing the clouds, the bright sunshine will appear in front of us.
Looking forward to 2023, industry experts also gave some suggestions. First, it is expected to show the orderly development of the industry, regional concentration and main body concentration, and avoid low-end and disorderly competition. The second is to encourage panel enterprises to take the lead in establishing innovative consortiums with upstream key materials and core equipment manufacturers to further promote the development of core basic components and major equipment. Third, China has shown that enterprises need to forge some "killer" technologies, consolidate their core capabilities in manufacturing and technology, and tighten their dependence on the international industrial chain. Fourth, it shows that industries and enterprises can adjust resource allocation, actively innovate new application scenarios, and achieve functional integration. Fifth, it is expected that the head enterprises will do a good job in the overall planning of various next-generation display technologies from the top, as well as the layout of intellectual property rights and technology patents. Sixth, the display industry, as the vanguard of science and technology industry, promotes the application of green low-carbon technology in the whole life cycle and process, and becomes the "pioneer" under the "carbon neutral" trend.
"The growth model of the industry is undergoing profound changes. It is moving away from the original extensive competition around price, capacity and scale, and returning to the orientation of customer and market demand. At the same time, the industry is paying more attention to the high added value brought by technology and brand, and turning to a more healthy and sustainable development model." Starr told the reporter of China Electronic News.
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