Electronic enthusiast website reported (article/Wu Zipeng) At present, the global display panel market has entered a new period of change again, with various innovative display technologies competing on the same platform. Take the Mini LED backlight market as an example. Previously, led by Apple and Samsung, there had been good market expectations. However, with Apple's withdrawal, the shipment volume of notebook market in IT display was significantly reduced, but it was still widely optimistic in the TV market, and it was also highly expected in the e-commerce display market.
From the perspective of market dynamics, although manufacturers actively invest in OLED and Micro LED. However, LCD will not be eliminated like CRT display in the foreseeable future due to its technical maturity and high cost performance, and still has a good market opportunity. Therefore, with the gradual maturity of Micro LED technology, the display market in the future will be in a situation where LCD, OLED and Micro LEDwill keep abreast of each other for a long time.
LCD returns to upward curve
On February 22, BOEsaid in its institutional research that the prices of mainstream size products such as LCD TV will remain relatively stable in the first quarter of 2023; The decline of IT products has continued to shrink, and the price of some products has stopped falling. At present, the overall crop growth rate of the industry is still at a low level, with low inventory and strong demand for price rise. LCD products will have the opportunity to meet the price rise.
This prediction is also supported by the data of other institutions. The relevant report points out that the large size LCD will return to growth in 2023, especially the TV market will have a bright performance. Analysts from Guoxin Securities believe that LCD will maintain stable profits in the future in a mild rise.
We all know that the LCD market has always followed the "Wang's Law". According to "Wang's Law", the price of LCD panel will drop by 50% every three years. If an enterprise wants to survive, its effective technology retention and product performance must be doubled. Since 2012, this law has shaped an obvious periodicity in the LCD market, and the latest cycle is 2020 - 2022.
According to the statistical data of Omdia, a market research agency, in January 2023, the decline in the price of 10.1-inch and 14-inch LCD panels stopped completely, and the decline in the price of 23.8-inch LCD panels has also been further narrowed, while in terms of large size TV panels, it has returned to the track of positive growth.
Not only has the price improved, but also the shipment volume. Large-scale LCD screens are expected to achieve an increase of more than 3% in the shipment volume in 2023, and this figure will be - 4.02% in 2022. Benefiting from the performance of the LCD TV market, the global LCD panel market will recover from Q2 2023.
Then back to "Wang's Law", it is expected that in the new three-year cycle, LCD panels based on Mini LED backlight technology will become the focus of manufacturers to expand production, and the product performance may be improved several times. At the same time, the price of Mini LED backlight panel will also gradually decrease in this cycle, which is expected to drive TV and IT monitors to be renewed to offset the continuous downturn in the personal PC market.
According to CINNO Research data, the average crop growth rate of LCD panels in China in July 2022 was 73.3%, a year-on-year decrease of 21%. At that time, there were many arguments that LCD would eventually withdraw from the stage of history. However, in the medium and long term, LCD still has a stable market position in the TV, IT monitor and notebook computer market. Although Apple's withdrawal has led to a slight decline in the growth rate of Mini LED, the penetration rate of this technology in all major terminals is still less than 5%. It has great potential in the future and is expected to help LCD compete with OLED and other innovative technologies in the high-end market.
Silicon-based OLEDs become new favorites
In recent years, the market share of major panel manufacturers in OLED has been steadily increasing. According to the Korean media, Samsung has been committed to improving the production capacity of quantum dot OLED panels by up to 30% in Q3 and Q4 of 2022.
At present, the production capacity of Samsung's 8.5 generation OELD substrate production line has reached 40000 pieces, compared with 30000 pieces previously. In addition, Samsung has also improved the yield of products in the process, which has reached 85%. Samsung is also actively investing in the construction of the 8-generation OLED line, which is mainly used for IT display, and is expected to be put into production in 2024. Samsung predicts that the global market size of self-luminescent display will reach 100 billion US dollars by 2030.
In addition to Samsung, LG and BOE are also actively increasing OLED production. For example, for the 8.5 generation line of LG Guangzhou factory, the production increase target is to expand from 60000 substrates per month to 90000 substrates per month.
In terms of OLEDs, silicon-based OLEDs are currently very hot and are known as "mainstream displays in the metauniverse". Compared with LCD and Micro LED, silicon-based OLED has the advantage of stronger color performance, but its resolution and brightness are inferior to the former two. However, most operators believe that VR is a closed space, so the brightness requirements are not so high.
In general, OLED will gradually challenge LCD in the future, especially in high-end TV and display market and VR equipment market. However, it will not be so easy. For example, in the television market, OLED TV panels may show negative growth in 2023. In the first three quarters of 2022, the sales volume of OLED TVs in the domestic market was only 152000, down from the previous year, and the market share was only 0.6%.
Micro LED mass production continues to break through
In fact, at the current time point, it is still too early to discuss how big the Micro LED will stir in the display panel industry. Although the performance of Micro LED is in the lead, it is still in the process of mass production.
At present, it has been reported in the market that many equipment companies have made breakthroughs in the massive transfer of equipment. Previously, Yitian said on the investment platform that in 2022, some equipment of the subsidiary Yitian Semiconductor Mini LED mass transfer equipment had been shipped, with a process yield of 99.9999%; Delong Laser said that at present, MicroLED laser mass transfer equipment has won the first order from head customers and will be delivered soon.
From various data, it is difficult for Micro LED to form a large-scale shipment before 2025. After 2025, Micro LED will gradually open up in wearable market, automobile market, VR market, commercial large screen and other markets.
Summary
In 2022, LCD display panels experienced a lot of criticism, especially in the case of a decline in LCD panel factory turnover, shipment volume and price. Many people believe that LCD will hand over the scepter and OLED will become the new mainstream of the market.
However, the market situation has proved that LCD is very competitive in the middle and low end markets, especially in the middle and low end markets, by virtue of mature technology and process and the support of Mini LED backlight technology.
According to the comprehensive forecast data. It is expected that OLED will surpass LCD in smartphone market share in 2023; It is estimated that OLED will account for 50% of VR market by 2027; It is estimated that OLED will still account for less than 5% of the TV and notebook market by 2025; It is expected that Micro LED will be difficult to form a large-scale shipment in other terminal markets except for wearable devices before 2030.
Therefore, to use a sentence that many netizens like to say: "LCD will never be a slave!" At least in the foreseeable future, its mainstream market position is still there.
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